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Consumer confidence indicator remained unchanged in Lithuania

Vida Stoškutė Chief Specialist, Standard of Living and Employment Statistics Division, 31.03.2017.Print version
Statistics Lithuania informs that in March 2017 the consumer confidence indicator stood at minus 10; against February, it remained unchanged. More pessimistic expectations for the changes in unemployment figures in the coming 12 months were counterbalanced by more optimistic expectations for making at least some savings.

Changes in the consumer confidence indicator and its components

Balance

 

March 2017

February 2017

March 2016

May 2001–March 2017 average

Largest since May 2001 

Smallest since May 2001 

Consumer confidence indicator

–10

−10

–7

−15,1

9
(2007-03)

−56
(2009-01)

Changes in the household's financial situation in the coming 12 months

0

0

0

−4,3

13
(2007-03)

−38
(2009-01)

Changes in the country's economic situation in the coming 12 months

–5

–5

1

−5,7

19
(2007-06)

−57
(2008-12)

Changes in the number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months

10

7

4

11,7

82
(2009-02)

−33
(2007-06)

Probability of making savings in the coming 12 months

−26

–28

–24

−38,7

−16
(2015-03)

−54
(2001-05)



In March, against February, the percentage of residents expecting improvement in financial situation in the coming 12 months increased from 19 to 21%.  18% of residents expected the situation to deteriorate (in February, 19%).


As in the previous month, 29% of residents expected the country's economic situation to deteriorate in the coming 12 months, 24% – to improve (in February, 23%).


In March, against February, the percentage of residents expecting the number of the unemployed to increase in the coming 12 months grew from 34 to 38%. 21% of residents expected the number of the unemployed to decrease.


34% of residents expected to make at least some savings in the coming 12 months, while 27% of residents stated that they did not expect to make at least some savings at all (in February, 33 and 26% respectively).


Consumer confidence indicator in urban rural areas

Consumer confidence indicators in urban and rural areas differed by 3 percentage points (ppt): in urban areas, it stood at minus 9, in rural areas – at minus 12. Against the previous month, the consumer confidence indicator in urban areas increased by 1 ppt in rural areas – decreased by 1ppt.


Expectations of urban population for household financial situation were more optimistic than a month ago: the percentage of those expecting an improvement in household financial situation in the coming 12 months increased from 19 to 23 %, the percentage of those expecting to make at least some savings – from 34 to 36%. Against February, the percentage of those expecting an improvement in the country's economic situation decreased from 24 to 22%.


Expectations of rural population for changes in unemployment figures and household's financial situation were a bit more pessimistic. Against February, percentage of rural population expecting an increase in the number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months increased from 35 to 45%, an improvement in household's financial situation – decreased from 20 to 17%.


The percentage of rural population expecting an improvement in the country's economic situation in the coming 12 months grew from 21 to 27%.


Consumer confidence indicator, against the same period of the previous year

Over the year (March 2017, against March 2016), the consumer confidence indicator decreased by 3 ppt . Opinion of residents about the expected changes in the country's economic situation considerably changed. The percentage of population expecting the country's economic situation to deteriorate in the coming 12 months increased from 23 to 29%, the number of the unemployed to increase – from 30 to 38%. The resident's expectations in terms of making at least some savings slightly deteriorated: the percentage of those expecting to make at least some savings in the coming 12 months decreased from 36 to 34%.


Assessment of changes in the last 12 months and the current situation

In March, as in February, 12% of the population stated that their household's financial situation in the last 12 months improved. The percentage of those stating that their household's financial situation deteriorated increased by 3 ppt (from 38 to 41%).


Assessment of changes in the country's economic situation in the last 12 months given by the residents was slightly worse than in February: 15% of the population stated that in the last 12 months the situation improved, 48% – that it deteriorated (in February, 4 %).


As regards the current financial situation of their family, each third resident (33%) indicated that made some savings (in February, 34%), 13% – indicated living on savings or borrowings (in February, 10%).


In March, 27% of the population planned in the coming 12 months to increase their expenditure on such purchases as furniture or household appliances, while each fifth resident expected to spend less than in the last 12 months (in February, 25 and 23% respectively).

The annex to the news release contains information on changes in the consumer confidence indicator and its components (answers to questions used to compile the indicator). Respective information on other EU countries is available on the European Commission's website.


The consumer opinion survey is conducted on the 1st–15th days of each month by interviewing 1 200 individuals randomly sampled from the Residents' Register of the Republic of Lithuania. The consumer confidence indicator refers to the simple arithmetic mean of the balances of positive and negative answers to four questions (about changes in the financial situation of the household, the economic situation in the country, the number of the unemployed (with an opposite sign), and the probability of making savings in the coming 12 months).


The survey is partially funded by the EU.

 Consumer confidence indicator, 2009–2017

Balance

Table 1. Consumer confidence indicator
%

 

2016

2017

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

I

II

III

Total population

−7

−8

−12

−7

−9

−10

−10

−8

−4

−5

−6

–10

–10

Female

−11

−10

−13

−10

−12

−12

−12

−11

−7

−6

−10

–13

–14

Male

−2

−6

−10

−4

−5

−6

−7

−4

0

−3

−2

–7

–5

Urban population

−5

−7

−10

−6

−8

−8

−9

−7

−4

−5

−6

–10

–9

Rural population

−11

−11

−15

−11

−11

−14

−12

−10

−5

−5

−5

–11

–12


Table 2. Opinion of the population about changes in the household's financial situation in the coming 12 months
%

 

2016

2017

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

I

II

III

Household's financial situation in the coming 12 months will:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

significantly improve

1

1

1

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

1

1

slightly improve

18

17

15

19

18

17

18

18

22

23

20

18

20

remain unchanged

61

60

57

60

60

60

57

61

60

55

57

57

55

slightly deteriorate

14

13

17

13

14

14

15

13

11

13

14

17

15

significantly deteriorate

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

3

Balance

0

0

−3

0

0

−2

0

0

4

3

1

0

0


Table 3. Opinion of the population about changes in the country's economic situation in the coming 12 months
%

 

2016

2017

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

I

II

III

Country's economic situation in the coming 12 months will:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

significantly improve

1

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

1

0

1

0

0

slightly improve

27

23

22

27

25

23

23

27

34

33

30

23

24

remain unchanged

46

49

47

46

47

46

45

47

42

44

42

45

45

slightly deteriorate

19

19

23

18

20

21

21

18

15

17

20

24

23

significantly deteriorate

4

4

5

5

4

5

5

3

3

3

3

5

6

Balance

1

2

−5

0

−1

−4

−4

2

7

6

2

–5

–5


Table 4. Opinion of the population about changes in the number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months
%

 

2016

2017

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

I

II

III

Number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months will:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

significantly increase

2

4

4

3

3

3

5

3

2

2

3

3

4

slightly increase

28

26

27

27

30

31

29

27

26

27

26

31

34

remain unchanged

42

44

42

42

43

42

41

44

43

42

44

41

38

slightly decrease

24

22

21

22

20

20

21

22

23

23

21

20

20

significantly decrease

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

2

1

1

1

Balance

4

4

6

4

7

7

8

5

2

3

5

7

10



Table 5. Opinion of the population about the probability of making savings in the coming 12 months
%

 

2016

2017

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

I

II

III

Probability of making savings in the coming 12 months:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

very likely

2

2

1

2

2

3

2

3

3

2

3

2

3

quite likely

34

32

29

34

33

32

32

30

31

33

34

31

31

rather unlikely

35

34

36

33

33

33

38

33

35

36

34

39

35

absolutely unlikely

26

28

31

28

29

28

26

30

27

26

26

26

27

Balance

−24

−27

−33

−25

−27

−26

−27

−28

−25

−25

−23

–28

–26

 






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