Analytics, Economics, Lithuania, Statistics
International Internet Magazine. Baltic States news & analytics
Friday, 29.03.2024, 07:59
Consumer confidence indicator remained unchanged in Lithuania
Changes in the consumer confidence indicator and its components
Balance
| March 2017 | February 2017 | March 2016 | May 2001–March 2017 average | Largest since May 2001 | Smallest since May 2001 |
Consumer confidence indicator | –10 | −10 | –7 | −15,1 | 9 | −56 |
Changes in the household's financial situation in the coming 12 months | 0 | 0 | 0 | −4,3 | 13 | −38 |
Changes in the country's economic situation in the coming 12 months | –5 | –5 | 1 | −5,7 | 19 | −57 |
Changes in the number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months | 10 | 7 | 4 | 11,7 | 82 | −33 |
Probability of making savings in the coming 12 months | −26 | –28 | –24 | −38,7 | −16 | −54 |
In March, against February, the percentage of residents
expecting improvement in financial situation in the coming 12 months increased
from 19 to 21%. 18% of residents expected the situation to deteriorate
(in February, 19%).
As in the previous month, 29% of residents expected the
country's economic situation to deteriorate in the coming 12 months, 24% – to
improve (in February, 23%).
In March, against February, the percentage of residents
expecting the number of the unemployed to increase in the coming 12 months grew
from 34 to 38%. 21% of residents expected the number of the unemployed to
decrease.
34% of residents expected to make at least some savings in
the coming 12 months, while 27% of residents stated that they did not expect to
make at least some savings at all (in February, 33 and 26% respectively).
Consumer confidence indicator in urban rural areas
Consumer confidence indicators in urban and rural areas
differed by 3 percentage points (ppt): in urban areas, it stood at minus 9, in
rural areas – at minus 12. Against the previous month, the consumer confidence
indicator in urban areas increased by 1 ppt in rural areas – decreased by 1ppt.
Expectations of urban population for household financial
situation were more optimistic than a month ago: the percentage of those
expecting an improvement in household financial situation in the coming 12
months increased from 19 to 23 %, the percentage of those expecting to make at
least some savings – from 34 to 36%. Against February, the percentage of those
expecting an improvement in the country's economic situation decreased from 24
to 22%.
Expectations of rural population for changes in unemployment
figures and household's financial situation were a bit more pessimistic.
Against February, percentage of rural population expecting an increase in the
number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months increased from 35 to 45%, an
improvement in household's financial situation – decreased from 20 to 17%.
The percentage of rural population expecting an improvement
in the country's economic situation in the coming 12 months grew from 21 to 27%.
Consumer confidence indicator, against the same period of the previous year
Over the year (March 2017, against March 2016), the consumer
confidence indicator decreased by 3 ppt . Opinion of residents about the
expected changes in the country's economic situation considerably changed. The
percentage of population expecting the country's economic situation to
deteriorate in the coming 12 months increased from 23 to 29%, the number of the
unemployed to increase – from 30 to 38%. The resident's expectations in terms
of making at least some savings slightly deteriorated: the percentage of those
expecting to make at least some savings in the coming 12 months decreased from
36 to 34%.
Assessment of changes in the last 12 months and the current situation
In March, as in February, 12% of the population stated that
their household's financial situation in the last 12 months improved. The
percentage of those stating that their household's financial situation
deteriorated increased by 3 ppt (from 38 to 41%).
Assessment of changes in the country's economic situation in
the last 12 months given by the residents was slightly worse than in February:
15% of the population stated that in the last 12 months the situation improved,
48% – that it deteriorated (in February, 4 %).
As regards the current financial situation of their family,
each third resident (33%) indicated that made some savings (in February, 34%),
13% – indicated living on savings or borrowings (in February, 10%).
In March, 27% of the population planned in the coming 12
months to increase their expenditure on such purchases as furniture or
household appliances, while each fifth resident expected to spend less than in
the last 12 months (in February, 25 and 23% respectively).
The annex to the news release contains information on
changes in the consumer confidence indicator and its components (answers to
questions used to compile the indicator). Respective information on other EU
countries is available on the European Commission's website.
The consumer opinion survey is conducted on the 1st–15th days
of each month by interviewing 1 200 individuals randomly sampled from
the Residents' Register of the Republic of Lithuania. The consumer confidence
indicator refers to the simple arithmetic mean of the balances of positive and
negative answers to four questions (about changes in the financial situation of
the household, the economic situation in the country, the number of the
unemployed (with an opposite sign), and the probability of making savings in
the coming 12 months).
The survey is partially funded by the EU.
Balance
Table 1. Consumer confidence indicator
%
| 2016 | 2017 | |||||||||||
III | IV | V | VI | VII | VIII | IX | X | XI | XII | I | II | III | |
Total population | −7 | −8 | −12 | −7 | −9 | −10 | −10 | −8 | −4 | −5 | −6 | –10 | –10 |
Female | −11 | −10 | −13 | −10 | −12 | −12 | −12 | −11 | −7 | −6 | −10 | –13 | –14 |
Male | −2 | −6 | −10 | −4 | −5 | −6 | −7 | −4 | 0 | −3 | −2 | –7 | –5 |
Urban population | −5 | −7 | −10 | −6 | −8 | −8 | −9 | −7 | −4 | −5 | −6 | –10 | –9 |
Rural population | −11 | −11 | −15 | −11 | −11 | −14 | −12 | −10 | −5 | −5 | −5 | –11 | –12 |
Table 2. Opinion of the population about changes in the household's financial situation in the coming 12 months
%
| 2016 | 2017 | |||||||||||
III | IV | V | VI | VII | VIII | IX | X | XI | XII | I | II | III | |
Household's financial situation in the coming 12 months will: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
significantly improve | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
slightly improve | 18 | 17 | 15 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 22 | 23 | 20 | 18 | 20 |
remain unchanged | 61 | 60 | 57 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 57 | 61 | 60 | 55 | 57 | 57 | 55 |
slightly deteriorate | 14 | 13 | 17 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 17 | 15 |
significantly deteriorate | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Balance | 0 | 0 | −3 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Table 3. Opinion of the population about changes in the country's economic situation in the coming 12 months
%
| 2016 | 2017 | |||||||||||
III | IV | V | VI | VII | VIII | IX | X | XI | XII | I | II | III | |
Country's economic situation in the coming 12 months will: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
significantly improve | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
slightly improve | 27 | 23 | 22 | 27 | 25 | 23 | 23 | 27 | 34 | 33 | 30 | 23 | 24 |
remain unchanged | 46 | 49 | 47 | 46 | 47 | 46 | 45 | 47 | 42 | 44 | 42 | 45 | 45 |
slightly deteriorate | 19 | 19 | 23 | 18 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 18 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 24 | 23 |
significantly deteriorate | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
Balance | 1 | −2 | −5 | 0 | −1 | −4 | −4 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 2 | –5 | –5 |
Table 4. Opinion of the population about changes in the number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months
%
| 2016 | 2017 | |||||||||||
III | IV | V | VI | VII | VIII | IX | X | XI | XII | I | II | III | |
Number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months will: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
significantly increase | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
slightly increase | 28 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 30 | 31 | 29 | 27 | 26 | 27 | 26 | 31 | 34 |
remain unchanged | 42 | 44 | 42 | 42 | 43 | 42 | 41 | 44 | 43 | 42 | 44 | 41 | 38 |
slightly decrease | 24 | 22 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 21 | 20 | 20 |
significantly decrease | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Balance | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 |
Table 5. Opinion of the population about the probability of making savings in the coming 12 months
%
| 2016 | 2017 | |||||||||||
III | IV | V | VI | VII | VIII | IX | X | XI | XII | I | II | III | |
Probability of making savings in the coming 12 months: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
very likely | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
quite likely | 34 | 32 | 29 | 34 | 33 | 32 | 32 | 30 | 31 | 33 | 34 | 31 | 31 |
rather unlikely | 35 | 34 | 36 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 38 | 33 | 35 | 36 | 34 | 39 | 35 |
absolutely unlikely | 26 | 28 | 31 | 28 | 29 | 28 | 26 | 30 | 27 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 27 |
Balance | −24 | −27 | −33 | −25 | −27 | −26 | −27 | −28 | −25 | −25 | −23 | –28 | –26 |