Middle East & Africa | Diplomatic drought

Jordan’s water crisis is made worse by a feud with Israel

A thirsty kingdom can ill afford to fall out with its neighbour

|AMMAN

THE Dead Sea is dying. Half a century ago its hyper-salty, super-pungent waters stretched 80km from north to south. That has shrunk to just 48km at its longest point. The water level is falling by more than a metre per year. All but a trickle from its source, the Jordan River, is now used up before it reaches the sea. “It will never disappear, because it has underground supplies, but it will be like a small pond in a very big hole,” says Munqeth Mehyar of EcoPeace, an NGO.

Until this summer Israel and Jordan, which share the sea, were trying to slow the decline. The “Red-Dead project”, as it is called, would desalinate seawater at the Jordanian port of Aqaba and pump 200m cubic metres of leftover brine into the Dead Sea each year. That would not be enough to stabilise the sea, which needs at least 800m cubic metres to stay at current levels. Still, it would help—and the project has a much more important benefit.

The World Bank defines water scarcity as less than 1,000 cubic metres per person annually. Jordan can provide less than 15% of that. The Aqaba plant would send fresh water to southern towns in both Jordan and Israel. In return for its share, Israel agreed to pump an equal amount to parched northern Jordan, where most of the population lives.

But the project is now on hold. On July 23rd a Jordanian teenager delivering furniture to the Israeli embassy stabbed a security guard. The guard opened fire, killing both his assailant and an innocent bystander. Jordan allowed the guard (and the rest of the embassy staff) to leave the country. Hours later Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, invited the guard to his office and embraced him. Jordan was furious and barred Israeli diplomats from returning until the guard is prosecuted. High-level talks on water projects—and other schemes, including an ambitious solar-energy farm—are now suspended.

Instead Jordan might, as one official puts it, “go it alone” on the Red-Dead project. This would be costly. The pipeline to the Dead Sea will need constant repairs because of the corrosive brine it carries. Mr Mehyar reckons it could cost up to $1bn to build and maintain for a decade. And a unilateral scheme would do nothing to ease water shortages around Amman, because it would be prohibitively expensive to ship fresh water 300km from Aqaba.

There are better ways for Jordan to help itself. Farms account for more than half of its annual consumption, but just 4% of GDP; the kingdom imports most of its food. Water is heavily subsidised—it is cheaper than in Israel or Saudi Arabia—encouraging farmers to plant thirsty crops like bananas. Though the government has taken a few modest steps to reduce demand, including a small price rise, it fears broader reforms would cause public anger.

Jordan is already one of the world’s most arid countries. Climate change will make matters worse. By the end of the century, say scientists from Stanford University, Jordan could be 4°C hotter, with about a third less rain. It needs to rationalise water consumption. And Israel, which wants a stable neighbour to its east, has an interest in getting water projects back on track. “The Israelis need to think more regionally,” says Mr Mehyar. “The leadership is not taking things as seriously as it should.”

This article appeared in the Middle East & Africa section of the print edition under the headline "Diplomatic drought"

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